A New, Larger Autonomous Vehicle Boom Is Underway With 81 Startups and a Waymo-Toyota Deal

A second autonomous vehicle boom is underway — larger and more commercially grounded than the first wave that peaked and crashed between 2016 and 2019. TechCrunch's mobility team declared the shift on November 1, citing Trucks VC data showing 81 new AV startups received funding pitches in 2026 alone, two-thirds more than in 2025. The same week, Toyota confirmed it will manufacture AV-ready bZ4X electric vehicles in Japan specifically for Waymo's international expansion into the UK and other markets — a sign that the supply chain is integrating around commercially viable autonomous deployments rather than perpetual prototypes.

What Changed Between the First Wave and Now

The 2016–2019 AV boom was driven by venture capital betting that full autonomy was three to five years away. It wasn't. Most of the companies that raised in that period — Uber ATG, Aurora's early backers, dozens of smaller sensor and software firms — burned through capital before reaching commercialization. The gap between demonstration capability and production-ready systems turned out to be far wider than investors modeled.

What's different in 2026:

• Foundation AI models cut the cost-per-mile dramatically. The same architectural advances that drove large language models — scale, multimodal inputs, in-context learning — have made AV perception and decision systems substantially more capable at lower marginal cost. New entrants can now build commercially viable systems at earlier funding stages than the 2016 cohort could.
• Trucking and fixed-route deployments proved the model. Companies like Waymo, Aurora, and Kodiak demonstrated that constrained deployments — highways, fixed freight routes, defined urban geofences — could reach consistent commercial operation before requiring full open-domain autonomy. That proof of concept drew new capital.
• Infrastructure caught up. HD mapping, V2X (vehicle-to-everything) communication standards, insurance frameworks, and regulatory pathways that didn't exist in 2016 are now in place in enough markets to support scaling.

According to TechCrunch's mobility coverage, the 81 new AV startups pitching Trucks VC in 2026 represent not just more activity but a different composition — more hardware-software integration plays, more vertical-specific deployments (ports, airports, last-mile delivery), and more companies with paying commercial customers rather than development-stage demos.

The Toyota-Waymo Manufacturing Signal

Toyota's decision to manufacture AV-ready bZ4X vehicles in Japan specifically for Waymo's international fleet is the most concrete indicator of how far supply chain integration has advanced. In the first AV wave, automakers were defensive toward autonomous vehicle companies — guarding their manufacturing relationships and platform IP. The Toyota-Waymo arrangement is the inverse: a major automaker purpose-building vehicles to another company's autonomous driving specification.

This matters for three reasons:

1. It confirms Waymo is real. Companies don't invest in purpose-built international manufacturing capacity for technology that isn't commercially validated. Toyota's willingness to commit factory capacity to Waymo vehicles is a stronger signal than any funding round.
2. It gives Waymo a path to international scale. Manufacturing in Japan means potential cost advantages for Asia-Pacific and European market expansion. The UK market entry is the first named international target, but the structure supports broader deployment.
3. It establishes a template other AV companies will try to replicate. Getting an OEM to purpose-build your vehicles is a supply chain advantage that distinguishes scale players from demo-stage startups.

The Commercial Landscape

Waymo is the most commercially advanced player in the U.S. robotaxi market, running paid rides in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Los Angeles. It has announced expansion to eight additional cities through 2027.

Aurora launched driverless commercial freight operations on Texas routes in 2026 after its safety-driver removal program passed final validation milestones.

Kodiak Robotics extended its California driverless freight permits to perishable cargo routes in September 2026 — a regulatory milestone that expands the addressable market for autonomous trucking.

The 81 new startup entrants Trucks VC is tracking represent the next layer of the stack: specialized perception hardware, simulation environments, fleet management software, regulatory compliance tools, and the AV-adjacent services that scale deployments require.

What to Watch

The critical near-term signal is whether any of the 81 new entrants close Series A or B rounds above $50 million before year-end. Trucks VC receiving pitches is interest, not capital. Conversions at meaningful valuations would confirm institutional investor belief in the second wave thesis.

Waymo's UK market entry timeline — and whether Toyota manufacturing actually delivers vehicles on schedule — will test whether the international expansion model works as designed. The UK has clearer AV regulatory pathways than most European markets, making it the right first test case.

The largest open question remains full open-domain autonomy in dense urban environments. The second wave is commercially grounded in constrained deployments. Whether the arc continues toward unrestricted operation depends on AI capabilities that are still improving but not yet benchmarked against production requirements.

Source: TechCrunch